The Economy: Mixed Data Still Supports Improved Growth - March 2017 - March 2017 economic reports, which mostly reflect economic activity in February, continued
to point to prospects of improved growth over the course of 2017, but there are signs that growth in the first quarter may not be as strong as had been expected. The advance estimate of first quarter 2017 gross domestic product (GDP) growth will
be released on April 28. While both consumer and business confidence remain strong on prospects of growth-friendly policy changes, such as tax reform, infrastructure spending, and decreased regulatory burdens, the impact on consumer and business economic activity thus far has been mixed. Read More >
The Economy: Strong Run Of Economic Data Accelerates Growth - February 2017 - As they did in January 2017, February 2017 economic reports, which mostly reflect economic activity that occurred in January 2017, continued to support real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of about 2.5–3.0% for the first quarter of 2017, according to “NowCast” model estimates by the New York and Atlanta Federal Reserve Banks (Fed). A pace in this range would be ahead of the average growth rate of just over 2% seen since the end of the Great Recession. Read More >
The Economy: Economic Data Point To Improving Growth - January 2017 - Two-thirds of economic reports received in January 2017, which mostly reflect economic activity from December 2016 and early January 2017, met or exceeded consensus expectations. Expectation levels continued to edge higher in January, extending a trend in place since the November 8, 2016 U.S. presidential election. On the upside, reports on service sector sentiment, manufacturing sentiment, new orders for durable goods, vehicle sales, and employment were all notably better than expected. Read More >
The Economy: Growth Persists In The Third Quarter - December 2016 - Economic reports received in December 2016, which mostly reflect economic activity in November and early December 2016, were generally mixed relative to consensus expectations, which have moved higher since the November 8, 2016 U.S. presidential election. On the upside, reports on consumer sentiment, housing, and manufacturing were all notably better than expected. While not as timely as the data for November and early December, the revised estimate of 2016 third quarter gross domestic product growth (GDP), released on December 23, surprised to the upside .. Read More >
The Economy: Growth Accelerates In The Third Quarter, Again - November 2016 - Economic reports received in November, which mostly reflect economic activity in October and early November, generally exceeded expectations, as reports on manufacturing, consumer activity, and the housing market were all notably better than expected. While not as timely as the data for October and November, the revised estimate of 2016 third quarter gross domestic product growth (GDP), released on November 25, surprised to the upside, accelerating to 3.2% annualized growth from 1.4% in the second quarter, above economists’ consensus expectations of 3.0% and solidly above the initial reading of 2.9%. Read More >
The Economy: Growth Accelerates In The Third Quarter - October 2016 - Economic reports received in October, which mostly reflect economic activity in September, generally showed some bounce back after disappointing data last month. While not as timely, the first estimate of 2016 third quarter gross domestic product growth (GDP), released on October 28, surprised to the upside, accelerating to 2.9% annualized growth from 1.4% in the second quarter, above economists’ consensus expectations of 2.6% and well ahead of Federal Reserve (Fed) NowCast Models of 2.1% (Atlanta Fed) and 2.2% (the New York Fed). Read More >
The Economy: Disappointing September Data Lower Expectations - September 2016 - Economic reports received in September, which mostly reflect economic activity in August, broadly disappointed after signs of accelerating activity in the early part of the summer. Despite a weak month, data have continued to suggest stronger growth in the second half of the year after subdued real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of less than 1.5% in the first half of 2016. Read More >
The Economy: Pockets Of Strength In August Keep Q3 Growth Forecasts On Track - August 2016 - Economic reports received in August, which largely reflect economic activity in July, signaled the economy is on track to bounce back from the roughly 1% real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the last three quarters. Data were consistent with possible GDP growth of 3–4% in the third quarter of 2016. Read More >
The Economy: Q2 GDP Disappoints, But June Data Top Expectations Overall - July 2016 - Economic data received in July, which largely reflect economic activity in June, broadly surprised to the upside throughout the month versus economists’ consensus estimates, possibly indicating a pickup in growth from the lackluster start to the year. As a result, the weekly reading of the Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index, which measures the aggregate number of positive economic surprises relative to negatives and scales them by size and economic impact, crossed into positive territory in July for the first time since January 2015. Read More >
The Economy: Data Supportive Of Continued Growth But Reflect Pre-Brexit Environment - June 2016 - Economic data received in June and early July, which largely reflect economic activity in May and June 2016, generally beat lowered expectations, as the oil glut eased, the dollar weakened, and manufacturing stabilized. Consumer spending (70% of gross domestic product [GDP]) looked to be the big winner, with spending in the second quarter on pace to be among the fastest in 10–15 years, led by solid auto sales and an ongoing acceleration of online shopping at the expense of traditional mall-based retailers. Read More >